Tampa BayMarket Report
Waldorf Astoria Residences — 50-Story Waterfront Tower — Downtown St. Petersburg
Tampa Bay New Construction Intelligence

Tampa BayNew Construction Intelligence

41 developments tracked. Every price sourced. Every claim cited. No spin.

Real data for buyers, realtors, and developers — not marketing flyers.

0
Units in Active Pipeline
37 developments
0%
Branded Residences
1,711 units across 7 brands
$0
Avg Market $/SF
Across 32 priced buildings
$0
PSF Ceiling
Rosewood Residences Lido Key
pre sales (1921)
under construction (905)
delivered (896)
reservation (314)
shadow inventory (178)
Waldorf Astoria — Rooftop Pool Deck with Bay Views

Waldorf Astoria — Rooftop Pool Deck with Bay Views

Market Thesis

Tampa Bay in Three Acts

Supply, demand, and the ceiling. What the data says — not the brochures.

01
Act One

Supply

37 active buildings, 4,214 units in pipeline. More than a third are branded residences. The wave is concentrated — not distributed evenly across the bay.

Pipeline by Status
pre sales1,921 units
under construction905 units
reservation314 units
delivered896 units
shadow inventory178 units
Sold-out buildings excluded.
02
Act Two

Demand

Florida migration hasn't slowed. Corporate relocations, state income-tax advantage, and Gulf-coast second-home buyers drive absorption — but the $2M+ tier is thinner than developer pro-formas assume.

$20.65B
AGI Wealth Inflow
Florida gained $20.65 billion in net adjusted gross income from domestic migration in 2023 — #1 in the nation. Tampa Bay's three counties (Pinellas, Hillsborough, Sarasota) rank among the top 10 Florida counties for AGI inflows. Source: IRS SOI Tax Data.
Top 5
Corporate HQ Migration
Tampa ranked in the national Top 5 for corporate HQ relocations (Site Selection Magazine, 2026). ARK Invest relocated from NYC to St. Pete (1,265 jobs, $28M impact). Mosaic (Fortune 307) moved from MN. 29 companies expanded or relocated in 2025 adding 2,280 jobs.
$12B+
Infrastructure Investment
Gas Plant District redevelopment ($6.8-$8B), Water Street Tampa ($3B), Howard Frankland Bridge ($973M, 50% capacity increase), $1.44B in St. Pete building permits, eVTOL air taxi infrastructure at Albert Whitted Airport (FAA ops summer 2026).
3.4M+
Population Growth
Tampa Bay MSA now 3.4M+ people, up 7% in 5 years. 53,836 new residents in 2023-2024 alone. Projecting 397,000-547,000 new residents through 2030. #8 nationally for attracting high-earning college-educated workers (Lightcast).
03
Act Three

The Ceiling

The spread from lowest to highest PSF is a live stress test. Art House cleared the low end; Roche Bobois's Sky Penthouse sets the ceiling at $2,727/SF. Where the ceiling holds — or breaks — sets the next three years of pricing.

PSF Ladder — Active Priced Buildings
REFLECTION
$722
211 Skiff Point
$829
Aqua at Westshore Yacht Club
$898
Art House
$910
ONE Tampa
$916
Ritz-Carlton Residences Tower II
$917
The Cade
$923
The Gallery Sarasota
$942
Residences at 400 Central
$976
The Palm 625
$1,025
The Edge Sarasota
$1,032
Viceroy Clearwater Beach
$1,189
1000 Boulevard of the Arts
$1,202
The Pearl
$1,221
The Owen Golden Gate Point
$1,225
Saravela Sarasota
$1,348
Pendry Residences Tampa
$1,353
Waldorf Astoria Residences Sarasota
$1,395
One Park Sarasota
$1,423
Beach Flower Residences
$1,428
Roche Bobois Maison
$1,433
Hotel ORA + Private Residences
$1,460
Peninsula Sarasota
$1,531
Waldorf Astoria Residences
$1,553
Mira Mar Residences
$1,663
Ritz-Carlton Residences Sarasota Bay
$1,713
SIX88 Residences
$1,896
Amara on Sarasota Bay
$2,066
St. Regis Residences Longboat Key
$2,147
Rosewood Residences Lido Key
$2,213
Building in Focus

Why REFLECTION This Week

REFLECTION
Delivered

REFLECTION

777 3rd Ave. N, St. Petersburg 33701

This Week
REFLECTION raised PSF 60.4%
Launch $450 → current $722 per SF
Units
88
$/SF
$722
Sold
92%

Straight Talk

Three things you should know about this report before you share it.

This Isn't Marketing

No developer paid for placement here. No listings are promoted. If the numbers are bad, the numbers are bad. You'll see it.

We Get It Wrong Sometimes

Market data moves fast. If you spot an error, tell us. We'll fix it, credit you, and move on. No ego.

Built for Working Agents

This report exists because sending a client a developer's glossy PDF isn't due diligence. Sourced data is.

Compiled by

Brian Sprague

Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker FL BK3221171 · Development Marketing Consultant

This report is compiled for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation, offering, or investment advice. All data is sourced from Stellar MLS, developer disclosures, and proprietary broker research. Figures should be independently verified before making purchase decisions. Market conditions are subject to change. Equal Housing Opportunity.