Tampa BayMarket Report
Waldorf Astoria Residences — 50-Story Waterfront Tower — Downtown St. Petersburg
Tampa Bay New Construction Intelligence

Tampa BayNew Construction Intelligence

35 developments tracked. Every price sourced. Every claim cited. No spin.

Real data for buyers, realtors, and developers — not marketing flyers.

0
Units in Active Pipeline
30 developments
0%
Branded Residences
1,577 units across 7 brands
$0
Avg Market $/SF
Across 19 priced buildings
$0
PSF Ceiling
SIX88 Residences
pre sales (1872)
under construction (757)
delivered (755)
reservation (314)
shadow inventory (178)
Waldorf Astoria — Rooftop Pool Deck with Bay Views

Waldorf Astoria — Rooftop Pool Deck with Bay Views

Market Thesis

Tampa Bay in Three Acts

Supply, demand, and the ceiling. What the data says — not the brochures.

01
Act One

Supply

30 active buildings, 3,876 units in pipeline. More than a third are branded residences. The wave is concentrated — not distributed evenly across the bay.

Pipeline by Status
pre sales1,872 units
under construction757 units
reservation314 units
delivered755 units
shadow inventory178 units
Sold-out buildings excluded.
02
Act Two

Demand

Florida migration hasn't slowed. Corporate relocations, state income-tax advantage, and Gulf-coast second-home buyers drive absorption — but the $2M+ tier is thinner than developer pro-formas assume.

$20.65B
AGI Wealth Inflow
Florida gained $20.65 billion in net adjusted gross income from domestic migration in 2023 — #1 in the nation. Tampa Bay's three counties (Pinellas, Hillsborough, Sarasota) rank among the top 10 Florida counties for AGI inflows. Source: IRS SOI Tax Data.
Top 5
Corporate HQ Migration
Tampa ranked in the national Top 5 for corporate HQ relocations (Site Selection Magazine, 2026). ARK Invest relocated from NYC to St. Pete (1,265 jobs, $28M impact). Mosaic (Fortune 307) moved from MN. 29 companies expanded or relocated in 2025 adding 2,280 jobs.
$12B+
Infrastructure Investment
Gas Plant District redevelopment ($6.8-$8B), Water Street Tampa ($3B), Howard Frankland Bridge ($973M, 50% capacity increase), $1.44B in St. Pete building permits, eVTOL air taxi infrastructure at Albert Whitted Airport (FAA ops summer 2026).
3.4M+
Population Growth
Tampa Bay MSA now 3.4M+ people, up 7% in 5 years. 53,836 new residents in 2023-2024 alone. Projecting 397,000-547,000 new residents through 2030. #8 nationally for attracting high-earning college-educated workers (Lightcast).
03
Act Three

The Ceiling

The spread from lowest to highest PSF is a live stress test. Art House cleared the low end; Roche Bobois's Sky Penthouse sets the ceiling at $2,727/SF. Where the ceiling holds — or breaks — sets the next three years of pricing.

PSF Ladder — Active Priced Buildings
REFLECTION
$727
The Cade
$907
Art House
$910
Ritz-Carlton Residences Tower II
$925
Luna at Marina Pointe
$927
Aqua at Westshore Yacht Club
$956
ONE Tampa
$970
Residences at 400 Central
$976
The Palm 625
$1,025
The Edge Sarasota
$1,040
Viceroy Clearwater Beach
$1,198
Pendry Residences Tampa
$1,329
Roche Bobois Maison
$1,433
Hotel ORA + Private Residences
$1,466
Waldorf Astoria Residences
$1,503
Peninsula Sarasota
$1,531
SIX88 Residences
$1,896
Building in Focus

Why ONE Tampa This Week

ONE Tampa
Under Construction

ONE Tampa

507 N Ashley Drive, Tampa 33602

This Week
ONE Tampa raised PSF 27.0%
Launch $764 → current $970 per SF
Units
225
$/SF
$970

Straight Talk

Three things you should know about this report before you share it.

This Isn't Marketing

No developer paid for placement here. No listings are promoted. If the numbers are bad, the numbers are bad. You'll see it.

We Get It Wrong Sometimes

Market data moves fast. If you spot an error, tell us. We'll fix it, credit you, and move on. No ego.

Built for Working Agents

This report exists because sending a client a developer's glossy PDF isn't due diligence. Sourced data is.

Compiled by

Brian Sprague

Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker FL BK3221171 · Development Marketing Consultant

This report is compiled for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation, offering, or investment advice. All data is sourced from Stellar MLS, developer disclosures, and proprietary broker research. Figures should be independently verified before making purchase decisions. Market conditions are subject to change. Equal Housing Opportunity.